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The price of Bitcoin is influenced by various factors, exhibiting high uncertainty, making it difficult to accurately predict the trend for the next three days. However, certain inferences can be made based on the current market situation and Technical Analysis. Below is the relevant analysis:
Technical Analysis: On the daily chart, Bitcoin has formed a bullish flag pattern below the Fibonacci 0.236 retracement level at $117,335, and previously rebounded significantly in the $98,000 area, which is anchored by a long-term rising trend line and the 50-day moving average, triggering rebounds multiple times. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has rebounded from oversold conditions to 54.77, not entering the overbought area, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is flattening near the zero line, indicating that bearish pressure is easing. If the current trend continues, the price is expected to rise.
Support and Resistance Levels: Key support levels are around $113,635 - $113,157 and $110,685, while key resistance levels are at $117,335 and $123,250. If the price does not fall below $116,200 within 4 hours on the night of August 9, it is likely that the price will continue to rise; if it falls below, a correction may begin.
Macroeconomic factors: The CME Group's FedWatch tool shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September is 95%. Lower interest rates often boost demand for risk assets such as cryptocurrencies. Meanwhile, China's promotion of stablecoin plans through Hong Kong and the increasing popularity of digital assets also support the long-term demand for Bitcoin, which has certain positive implications for Bitcoin at the macroeconomic level.
Market sentiment and capital flow: Institutions continue to bottom fish Bitcoin, and a head-and-shoulders pattern has broken out at the weekly level, with a theoretical target pointing above $150,000, bringing some optimism to the market. However, some analysts warn that long-term holders have started to sell Bitcoin after reaching historical highs, and ETF capital inflow has weakened, with noticeable outflows from the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF, indicating a certain game of tug-of-war between bulls and bears. #Gate & WLFI USD1 积分计划#