Recently, expectations in the financial market regarding the direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy have changed significantly. The latest data shows that the market generally believes that the likelihood of the Federal Reserve choosing to cut interest rates at the September meeting has risen sharply, with a probability of a 25 basis point cut reaching as high as 90.7%, while the probability of maintaining the interest rate unchanged is only 9.3%.

This expectation continues into October, with the market anticipating a 48.9% probability of the Federal Reserve cumulatively cutting interest rates by 25 basis points, a 46.5% probability of a cumulative cut of 50 basis points, and a 4.5% probability of maintaining the interest rate.

These data reflect that investors' concerns about the outlook of the U.S. economy are deepening, while also indicating the market's expectations for a potential easing of inflationary pressures. The rising expectations for interest rate cuts may have a broad impact on financial markets, including the stock market, bond market, and exchange rates.

However, it is worth noting that the Federal Reserve's decisions are not solely based on market expectations; they also need to consider various economic data and risk factors. Investors should closely monitor the upcoming economic indicators and the statements of Federal Reserve officials to better understand the direction of policy.

As expectations for interest rate cuts heat up, market participants generally show anticipation for this. However, we should also remain cautious and avoid overly comparing the current situation to certain specific periods in history. Each economic cycle and policy environment has its uniqueness, and blind comparisons can lead to erroneous judgments.