Blockchain Pioneer Du Jun: Bitcoin Will Welcome the Year of Programmability, US Dollar Stablecoins Reshape Financial Order

As a pioneer and long-term witness in the blockchain industry, Du Jun's name is almost synonymous with every key wave: from early participation in the popularization of Bitcoin in China, to creating a central node for the flow of industry information, and then to accurately capturing multiple cycles of opportunities. With his keen judgment of technological trends and a long-term approach to capital operation, he has written countless classic cases in the industry.

Today, he has founded an incubator focused on the intersection of AI and Crypto innovation, remaining active at the forefront of the industry—at the crossroads of the Bitcoin ecosystem, the stablecoin landscape, and the wave of AI, continuously exploring the boundaries of technology, and firmly optimistic about the rise of Chinese people in the global technology landscape.

In a deep conversation, Du Jun not only shared his in-depth analysis of the underlying logic of Blockchain but also publicly explained for the first time why he views BitVM as a "key leap" for the Bitcoin ecosystem, predicting that 2026 will be the "first year of Programmability Bitcoin." When discussing the Hong Kong stablecoin sandbox and the regulatory game with the United States, he calmly demonstrated the calm judgment of a capital strategist.

The Golden Age of Chinese Technology

Du Jun believes that we are indeed in an era of great opportunities, where Chinese people are in a leading position globally in several cutting-edge technological fields, especially in the Blockchain industry, where the advantages are particularly prominent.

Exchanges are almost entirely dominated by the Chinese, and the same goes for mining machine manufacturing. Public chain projects like Tron, Ethereum, Solana, and BNBChain also have a significant number of founders and executives with Chinese backgrounds. Looking across the industry, whether it's exchanges, mining machine manufacturers, or wallet applications, the presence of Chinese individuals can be seen almost everywhere.

This influence has now extended from Blockchain to a broader range of technology fields: in Silicon Valley, Chinese leaders are frequently emerging in the AI and semiconductor industries, playing a decisive role in their respective areas. Compared to a decade ago, when Indian engineers dominated, the current "Chinese dividend" is becoming the new main theme.

According to Du Jun, Chinese people not only possess technological innovation capabilities in key technological fields such as Blockchain, artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and new energy but are also gradually moving towards capital decision-making levels and industry-leading positions. This comprehensive rise signifies that the "golden era of Chinese technology" has arrived, and it also means that Chinese people will play an increasingly important role in the global technological competition landscape.

The Positioning and Future of Public Chains

Du Jun believes that currently, there are only four core public chains that have truly established a foothold: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Tron, and Solana. Their advantages lie not only in the technology itself but also in their clear market positioning.

• Bitcoin is digital gold, it goes without saying;
• Ethereum has become the de facto standard for DeFi infrastructure;
• Tron focuses on stablecoin transfers and settlements, with strong scene implementation in the payment field;
• Solana, on the other hand, positions itself as a high-performance, low-latency Meme public chain, focusing on the ultimate user experience and liquidity hotspots.

The reason these public chains have reached today is not because of a "one-size-fits-all" function package, but rather clear strategic choices. In contrast, many other public chains either have vague positioning or mediocre technology, making it difficult to break through across cycles.

As for whether new public chains are still needed in the future, Du Jun's judgment is: there is no need in the short term. At present, Ethereum's Layer1 solution has significantly improved scalability, reduced costs, and enhanced interoperability between assets. Apart from a few Layer 2 projects like Base that have emerged, most have long disappeared. It’s like a Swiss Army knife; the truly frequently used functions are actually just a few. The market's desire for "new public chains" is often a pseudo-demand amplified by imagination. At least in the next five years, he does not believe that many new public chains are necessary—even five years later, we may not necessarily see structural changes.

Du Jun emphasized that the core competitiveness of public chains lies in strategic positioning and the closed loop of real use cases, rather than the stacking of concepts and numerical expansion. His analysis of the current public chain ecosystem reflects the industry's higher demands for efficiency and practicality.

The Cycle of Exchanges and Missed Investment Opportunities

Du Jun revealed that he is optimistic about a certain trading platform in this round, but unfortunately missed the investment. There are two reasons: first, they do not accept external investment, and he had contacted them a long time ago; the team has hardly taken external funds. Second, he did not buy their coin in the early stage, and by the time he wanted to buy, it had already risen to 15 dollars, missing the best opportunity. In the past, he was able to accurately time every round, but this time he got distracted by researching AI and other fields, and did not have enough focus to invest enough energy in the primary market.

Du Jun admitted that the opportunity for exchanges in this round of bull market has been missed, reflecting the importance of focus in investment. He mentioned that some institutions have performed well in branding and investment, showing that the primary market still has potential, but requires accurate judgment and resource investment.

Bitcoin Ecosystem: From Sentiment to Programmable Future

Du Jun stated that there are some sentiments in the Bitcoin ecosystem. Before 2017, certain trading platforms primarily traded Bitcoin and Litecoin, and in the early days, there was even only Bitcoin. They often corrected the term "Shanzhai coin" and referred to it as "competitive coin". At that time, they promoted the immutability, traceability, and distributed nature of Bitcoin, but seldom mentioned Programmability. After Ethereum emerged, it emphasized the Programmability of Blockchain and the space for innovation. The Bitcoin community was once divided into two factions: one faction debated on scalability, leading to some forks; the other faction hoped for Bitcoin to be programmable, functional like Ethereum.

For many years, the programmability route technology was immature, until the rise of inscriptions and runes in 2023. In his view, there was a lack of long-term value support, so he did not participate. Later, the BitVM protocol proposed achieving Bitcoin programmability through a white paper, which he found very interesting. Bitcoin is a $2 trillion asset, but its liquidity is difficult to release. Ethereum has some derivative financial products, while Bitcoin's WBTC relies on centralized institutions, which poses risks. Technologies like BitVM attempt to achieve decentralized minting and redemption, joint mining pool verification, and create assets similar to YBTC for on-chain scenarios. This is his dream, and they have invested in multiple routes including BitVM, RGB++, World Lock, and Lightning. As long as programmability can be achieved, he supports it. Now the BitVM route is clear, the code quality is high, and the first step towards decentralized minting and redemption is expected to be achieved before September this year, with a complete solution possibly seen next year. The development cycle is long, but there is already a glimmer of hope, with one team having 30 to 40 full-time technicians continuously iterating.

Du Jun is optimistic about the programmability of the Bitcoin ecosystem, believing it is a trend because these technological routes have already begun to be realized, not just castles in the air. Last year was just a slogan, but progress has been made now. The programmability of the Bitcoin ecosystem is not only a technological breakthrough but also key to unlocking its $2 trillion liquidity.

The "Religion" of Bitcoin and the Battle for Decentralization

Du Jun believes that, logically, new coins may emerge in the future because nothing is impossible. However, subjectively, he finds it very difficult. Bitcoin and Ethereum are completely different concepts. Bitcoin is a belief, like a religion, representing digital gold and priceless freedom. You can say it is worth 10,000, 100,000, or even 1 trillion dollars because it is irreplaceable, a fundamental culture and belief. If Ethereum loses its DeFi projects and its transaction volume drops from 5 million to 500,000, it may be sold off, but Bitcoin will not. In the early days, they shouted "Recharge Faith," which is the logic behind it. In the short term, it is hard for any coin to replace Bitcoin's status.

Du Jun compares Bitcoin to a "religion", emphasizing its unique cultural and faith attributes. He believes that while its decentralized nature is questioned, it remains difficult to replace.

Industry Changes: From Belief to Stark Reality

Du Jun reviewed his journey in the Blockchain: buying Bitcoin in 2012, co-founding a trading platform with others in 2013, serving as CMO, promoting the platform and Bitcoin. In the early days, it was essential to spark users' interest in Bitcoin by discussing its technological reliability and asset allocation. At that time, there weren't many application scenarios, and the price fluctuations were small, relying on technology and the concept of digital gold to attract users. By 2015, he was discussing Bitcoin with local governments, and from 2018 to 2022, he was still talking about it in Singapore, gradually losing a sense of achievement. It's not that the world hasn't progressed; it's that we haven't progressed. For over a decade, we're still discussing Bitcoin. Just like you wouldn't explain the HTTP protocol to your parents but rather discuss how mobile internet makes life more convenient. Blockchain should also focus on application scenarios.

The year before last, he discovered that stablecoins were a breakthrough point, with high efficiency and low cost for cross-border transfers. Traditional transfers take 1 to 4 days and cost between 18 to 25 dollars, while Ethereum transfers only cost between 0.25 to 1 dollar. Last year, the total transfer volume of USDT and USDC reached 27 trillion dollars, surpassing Visa and Mastercard's 25 to 26 trillion, demonstrating the promotion of economic efficiency by Blockchain. There have been several key moments in history: the Bitcoin whitepaper in 2008, the Ethereum ICO in 2017 which granted equal rights for currency issuance, the DeFi Summer in 2020 which achieved on-chain decentralized finance, and the promotion of stablecoins from 2014 to 2017. However, this cycle lacks innovation, with only Meme and Tap2earn projects reaping users rather than creating value, leading to a dull industry. Without incremental users and assets, exchanges struggle to rise. New assets create new exchanges, such as NFT assets giving rise to specific NFT trading platforms, and this cycle of Meme assets has spawned some new platforms. If the industry is left with only Meme and Tap2earn, it could mean 'game over'.

Du Jun reflects on the industry's lack of innovation, believing that applications such as stablecoins are the hope for the future, rather than mere speculative logic.

The Victory and Future of Stablecoins

Du Jun believes that studying the history of currency issuance is very interesting. In the early days, shells and gold were used, and after the formation of nations, each had its own currency. In a free competitive market, the US dollar and gold prevailed, and no one chose the Zimbabwe dollar or the Hong Kong dollar. Within sovereign nations, currency is enforced by the government, but in global circulation, the US dollar dominates. The future will break through sovereignty and lead to free competition, with USD stablecoins having the most advantages. Gold stablecoins are unstable due to their investment property. USDT prevails due to a wide range of scenarios and high acceptance. Hong Kong paper money is issued by three banks, while the US does not care who issues USD stablecoins, as long as they are pegged to USD assets. Currently, the usage scenarios for the Hong Kong dollar, Singapore dollar, and Cambodian riel are limited, and online expansion still faces challenges. Stablecoins need scenario support; for example, if some large companies issue coins without scenarios, it is also difficult to succeed.

Regarding the dollar's hegemony facing de-dollarization, the scale of stablecoins will increase from hundreds of billions to 3 trillion dollars. Some say Bitcoin will become a reservoir for stablecoins, and the view that 60% of stablecoin value is anchored to Bitcoin is considered possible by Du Jun, but at this stage, stablecoins are used for payments and arbitrage. The issuance of stablecoins is not meant to buy other coins, but rather for arbitrage. In reality, the interest on the dollar is 2%, U.S. Treasury bonds yield 4%, and on-chain arbitrage can reach several points. This withdraws funds from altcoins, impacting their prices. Whether it will become a reservoir in the future needs to be observed, and he is not very optimistic.

Regarding the US GENIUS Act and Hong Kong's policy allowing the issuance of various stablecoins, Du Jun stated that he has not studied them as there are no plans to issue stablecoins. The most profitable areas in Blockchain are exchanges, stablecoins, and public chains, but wanting to do it and being able to do it are two different things. Stablecoins require scenario support; USDT and USDC have succeeded due to their scenarios, while dozens of others have failed.

This dialogue showcases Du Jun's extraordinary journey from the University of Hong Kong to a blockchain pioneer. With profound emotions and a forward-looking vision, he outlines the industry's changes and future blueprint. From the "religious" belief in Bitcoin to the technological breakthroughs in Programmability, his expectations for the Bitcoin ecosystem in 2026 are inspiring; from the precise positioning of public chains to the dollar dominance of stablecoins, he analyzes the core logic of the market; from the lack of innovation in the industry to the rise of Chinese technology, he calls for a return to value creation, igniting new hope for the industry. Frequently shuttling between the United States, Singapore, and Hong Kong, Du Jun not only witnesses the global influence of Chinese people in blockchain, AI, and other fields, but also pushes the boundaries of technology with his own layout.