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According to the latest economic data analysis, major Asian stock markets are expected to be positively influenced by the rise in the US stock market. The latest inflation data released in the US meets market expectations, which has strengthened investors' confidence that the Fed may start cutting interest rates in September.
Financial market observations indicate that stock index futures in Tokyo, Hong Kong, and Sydney are all showing a pump trend, suggesting that the major stock indices in these regions may open higher. This optimistic sentiment stems from the strong performance of the US stock market, where all three major indices achieved gains of over 1%, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices setting new historical highs.
Although the U.S. Treasury market has seen a pullback in its early morning rise, the money market remains optimistic about the Fed's imminent interest rate cut. Current market expectations indicate a probability of over 90% that the Fed will cut rates next month, and this expectation directly affects the performance of various assets.
It is worth noting that the two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which is sensitive to policy changes, fell by 4 basis points to 3.73%, while the dollar exchange rate also showed a downward trend. Although the core inflation rate rose to its highest level since the beginning of the year, the moderate rise in commodity prices alleviated market concerns that trade-related costs might push up overall inflation.
A well-known American economist from a financial institution pointed out that despite the rise in inflation, its increase is lower than some investors' expectations. This data may be welcomed by the market in the short term, as it could prompt the Fed to pay more attention to the weakness in the labor market, thereby increasing the likelihood of interest rate cuts in September.
However, market participants should remain cautious about this optimistic sentiment, as changes in economic data and uncertainties in the global geopolitical situation may still impact the financial markets. Investors should closely monitor future economic indicators and speeches from Fed officials to better anticipate policy directions and market trends.