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Recently, an economic expert from the Commonwealth Bank of Australia expressed the view that the upcoming speech by Fed Chairman Powell at the Jackson Hole annual symposium could become an important factor influencing the USD's movement. However, the expert cautioned investors not to expect Powell to provide clear policy direction in his speech.
Economists analyze that Powell is likely to maintain a cautious attitude and continue to wait for more economic data before making a decision. However, if Powell shows a tendency to cut interest rates in his speech, the market may more fully anticipate a rate cut in September, which could lead to a moderate decline in the dollar exchange rate.
It is worth noting that the market's expected probability of a rate cut in September has reached about 70%. This high expectation poses a challenge for Powell, as he needs to send a very clear signal if he wants to change market expectations.
This speech will attract significant attention as it may provide important clues about the future direction of U.S. monetary policy. Investors and economists will closely monitor every word from Powell to look for subtle hints that could influence financial markets.