In the crypto assets market, many investors often fall into the trap of a single perspective. Some excessively rely on technical analysis, while others overly focus on market sentiment, and there are those who are fixated on the so-called "cycle time points." Although, theoretically, the second year after a Bitcoin Halving usually marks the end of a bull run, using this as the sole criterion for judgment may lead to incorrect conclusions.

Let us review the market environment of 2021. The bull run at that time not only benefited from the impact of the Halving cycle but was more importantly supported by a favorable macroeconomic environment. The Federal Reserve implemented loose monetary policies, lowered interest rates, and increased liquidity, providing strong momentum for the market. However, by the end of 2021, the situation changed dramatically: the inflation rate soared to a 40-year high, the unemployment rate quickly fell, and the Federal Reserve began to signal interest rate hikes. The dot plot in December showed that nearly all members supported rate increases, and the market quickly realized that 2022 would enter a tightening cycle. Therefore, the end of the bull run coincided almost simultaneously with the expectation of interest rate hikes, forming a "perfect overlap" of cyclical and macro factors.

Nowadays, although many people predict a bear market based on the theory of the second year after the Halving, they overlook a key point: the current macroeconomic environment is completely different from that of 2021. The end of 2021 marked the beginning of the interest rate hike cycle, while we are now in the middle of a rate cut cycle. The Federal Reserve has continuously lowered its interest rate forecasts for the next two years, and conservatively estimates that there will not be another rate hike at least until 2026. This means that the liquidity contraction has temporarily stopped, and the market is still enjoying a relatively loose monetary environment.

In the face of the contradiction between "cyclical patterns" and "macro environment", how should we weigh them? My personal opinion is that we should not overly rely on a single factor. Investment decisions need to consider multiple factors comprehensively, including but not limited to technical indicators, market sentiment, cyclical theories, and the macroeconomic environment. In the current complex market environment, flexibly adjusting strategies and maintaining an open mind may be wiser than sticking to any single theory.