The ETH/BTC exchange rate is approaching a key resistance level! Ethereum price rebounds to $3700, is the alt season signal emerging?

Question

Ethereum (ETH) price has strongly rebounded above $3700, while Bitcoin (BTC) price continues to hover around $114,000. The market focus has shifted to the ETH/BTC Exchange Rate, which is currently reported at 0.03059, nearing the key technical resistance level of the near-year bottom range. Analysts point out that if ETH/BTC can effectively break through the current resistance (including the 0.382 Fibonacci Retracement level), along with a continuous decline in BTC Dominance (BTC.D), it may signal the true onset of alt season. This article combines technical analysis and market sentiment to explore the potential breakout path and price targets for ETH.

▶ ETH/BTC exchange rate hits bottom and rebounds, technical analysis shows bullish signals

Key Position: The ETH/BTC Exchange Rate has risen to 0.03059 after fluctuating near a bottom area at the end of the year, currently testing the upper edge of a repeatedly validated Cyclical Support area.
Technical Resistance: The exchange rate is approaching the 0.382 Fibonacci Level, which is often seen by technical traders as a Potential Trend Reversal signal zone.
Market Structure: Multiple analysts have pointed out that the current ETH/BTC market structure is showing "very bullish" characteristics, and history shows that every time such low points are reached, a rebound occurs.

▶ Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) is a key variable that affects the lifeblood of alt season

Barometer Function: Analyst MerlijnTrader observed that the BTC Dominance (BTC.D) has shown signs of weakness, with liquidity gradually shifting towards altcoins including ETH.
Alt Season Activation Conditions: The market view is that "once we see $BTC.D drop and $ETHBTC rise, the real alt season will begin."
Risk Warning: Currently, BTC.D is at a sensitive threshold of 62%. Analyst Daan warns that if BTC.D effectively breaks through this level, the market may shift back towards Bitcoin, leading to a continued relative weakness in ETH.

▶ Ethereum Price Outlook: Optimistic Predictions Coexist with Market Realities

Bullish Scenario (Long-term): Senior analyst Thomas Lee suggested that if the ETH/BTC exchange rate can return to the peak of 2021 (around 0.08837), the price of ETH is expected to reach $16,000.
Bullish Scenario (Mid-term): BitMine BMNR believes that if the exchange rate level is maintained around August 2024 (approximately 0.050), based on the current BTC price, ETH could reach around $5,700, and emphasizes that "ETH currently has a better risk/reward ratio."
Market Cautious Expectations: Prediction platform Polymarket shows that the probability of ETH reaching a new all-time high (ATH) before 2026 is 54%. Currently, ETH is trading around $3,700, and it needs to rise about 25% to break through the previous high from November 2021.

▶ Current Status and Breakthrough Path

ETH Price: Successfully rebounded and stabilized above the $3,700 mark.
BTC Price: Continuing to consolidate around $114,000.
Breakthrough Key: Can the ETH/BTC Exchange Rate effectively break through the current technical resistance zone (with a focus on Fibonacci levels), and can BTC.D confirm a downward trend? These are the core factors that determine whether ETH can initiate an independent upward trend and lead the alt season.

Conclusion: Technical Analysis and Market Sentiment Resonance, ETH Welcomes a Key Window Period

Ethereum is attracting market attention with a strong rebound in price and a bottoming recovery of the ETH/BTC exchange rate. Technical analysis shows that its exchange rate is on the edge of a potential reversal, while signs of loosening Bitcoin dominance inject hope into the altcoin market. However, the 62% BTC.D level remains a sword of Damocles, and its breakout direction will greatly influence capital rotation. Whether ETH can seize the current opportunity of technical and liquidity shifts, successfully break through key resistance, and open up upward space will become an important barometer for observing whether the crypto market rotation and alt season are approaching. Investors need to closely watch for breakout signals in the ETH/BTC exchange rate and the subsequent trends of BTC.D.

Analyst Opinion: The ETH/BTC exchange rate is approaching a key resistance level, and the technical structure is bullish. If the dominance of BTC continues to weaken, it may trigger an altcoin market. In the short term, focus on the 0.382 Fibonacci level for support and resistance, while the mid-term target looks towards the 5700-16000 USD range, but be wary of the risk of a BTC.D rebound.